Inflation and Capital Flows

Julien Bengui and Louphou Coulibaly

No 17661, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Over the latest monetary policy tightening cycle, capital has been flowing from jurisdictions with the least aggressive hiking profiles to those with the most aggressive ones. This pattern of capital flows is consistent with the predictions of a standard open-economy model with nominal rigidities where cost-push shocks generate an inflationary episode and capital flows freely across countries. Yet, by raising demand for domestic non-tradable goods and services, capital inflows cause unwelcome upward pressure on firms' costs in countries most severely hit by these shocks. We argue that a reverse pattern of capital flows would have improved the output-inflation trade-off globally, hence requiring a less aggressive monetary tightening in the most severely hit countries and delivering overall welfare gains.

Keywords: Cost-push shocks; Current account adjustment; Externalities; Capital flow management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E52 F32 F41 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP17661 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation and Capital Flows (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17661

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP17661

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().