The Market Price of Risk and Macro-Financial Dynamics

Tobias Adrian, Fernando Duarte and Tara Iyer

No 17777, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We propose the log conditional volatility of GDP spanned by financial factors as "Volatility Financial Conditions Index" (VFCI) and derive conditions under which it is the log market price of risk. The VFCI exhibits superior explanatory power for stock and bond risk premia compared to other FCIs. We use a variety of identification strategies and instruments to demonstrate robust causal relationships between the VFCI and macroeconomic aggregates: a tightening of the VFCI leads to a persistent contraction of output and triggers an immediate easing of monetary policy. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy shocks cause tighter financial conditions.

JEL-codes: E44 E52 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01
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Working Paper: The Market Price of Risk and Macro-Financial Dynamics (2023)
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