The Gravity of Violence

Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer and Mathias Thoenig

No 19527, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Studying continental Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is simulated to quantify different policy-relevant experiments in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive. Positive and spatially-diffusing feedback loops between development and pacification are one of the main findings of our analysis.

JEL-codes: D74 F1 O1 R1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-09
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