Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse Shapiro

No 19564, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Many influential observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a forecaster who fits a model using data from a given election and uses that model, in tandem with a projection of demographic trends, to predict future elections. Even a forecaster with perfect knowledge of future demographic trends would have performed poorly over this period—worse even than one who simply guesses that each election will have a 50-50 partisan split. Enriching the set of demographics available does not change this conclusion. Slow demographic change, unstable group preferences, and strategic party responses all help to explain why demography has not been destiny in US politics.

JEL-codes: C53 D72 J11 P00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
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