Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns

Christoph Carnehl, Satoshi Fukuda and Nenad Kos

No 19632, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We study a behavioral SIR model with time-varying costs of distancing. We explore the consequences of distancing fatigue and public policies. For a second wave of an epidemic to arise, a steep increase in distancing cost is necessary. Distancing fatigue alone cannot trigger a second wave. However, public policies that discontinuously affect distancing cost can. We characterize the largest change in the distancing cost that will not cause a second wave. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis of public policies under distancing fatigue and show that an early strict lockdown can lead to unintended adverse consequences.

Keywords: Lockdown (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C73 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
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