Monetary Policy with Persistent Supply Shocks

Nuño, Galo, Philipp Renner and Simon Scheidegger

No 19678, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper studies monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with persistent supply shocks, that is, sustained increases in production costs due to factors such as wars or geopolitical fragmentation. First, we demonstrate that Taylor rules fail to stabilize long-term inflation due to endogenous shifts in the natural interest rate. Second, we analyze optimal policy responses under discretion and commitment. Under discretion, a systematic inflationary bias emerges when the shock impacts the economy. Under commitment, the optimal policy adopts a lean-against-the-wind approach without compensating for past inflation, implying that "bygones are bygones". We further extend the model to incorporate the zero lower bound (ZLB) and show that the optimal policy supports preemptive easing.

JEL-codes: E32 E58 E63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19678 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19678

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP19678

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().