The Economics of Civilian Victimization: Evidence from World War II Italy

Mattia Bertazzini and Michela Giorcelli

No 20392, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper studies to what extent changes in economic incentives, and in particular a drop in soldiers’ accountability, affect violence against civilians. It uses evidence from the Italian Campaign during World War II (1943-1945). Exploiting movements of the front lines as plausibly exogenous shocks to soldiers’ accountability in a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we find that: i) at front line activation, the probability of indiscriminate violence against civilians jumped 13 folds; ii) the effect was driven by a drop in accountability linked to a temporary break-down of the command chain; iii) crucially for policy, the effect is concentrated in proximity of less experienced units.

Keywords: Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 D90 N44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07
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