The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies

Cullen, Zöe, Ester Faia, Elisa Guglielminetti, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Concetta Rondinelli

No 20894, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We present the first large-scale field experiment test of strategic complementarities in firms' technology adoption. Our experiment was embedded in a Bank of Italy survey covering around 3,000 firms. We elicited firms' beliefs about competitors' adoption of two advanced technologies: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics. We randomly provided half of the sample with accurate information about adoption rates. Most firms substantially underestimated competitors' current adoption, and when provided with information, they updated their expectations about competitors' future adoption. The information increased firms' own intended future adoption of robotics, although we do not observe a significant effect on AI adoption. Our findings provide causal evidence on coordination in innovation and illustrate how information frictions shape technology diffusion.

Keywords: Innovation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D22 L21 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
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