Econometric Modelling of the Birth Rate

Eric De Cooman, John Ermisch and Heather Joshi

No 213, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: In this paper we explore two econometric approaches to data on parity-specific birth rates in England and Wales during the postwar period. Both approaches can accommodate complex dynamic adjustments within birth rates and focus on adjustments of fertility behavior in response to changes in certain labor market variables: the ratio of women's to men's wages, a cohort's long-term level of female attachment to the labor market, the relative size of generations, price inflation, real earnings and unemployment. The first approach uses a panel data estimator, while the second divides the data into time-series for five-year age groups. The latter method appears more promising for short-run forecasting.

Keywords: Birth Rates; Fertility; Forecasting; Labour Markets; Panel Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987-12
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