ECB Exchange Rate Communication

Fabio Comazzi, Mar Domenech Palacios, Michael Ehrmann, Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Arnaud Mehl

No 21606, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We revisit the debate on the effectiveness of central bank communication on exchange rates, contrasting a skeptical view, which holds that communication neither moves exchange rates nor influences them in the desired direction, with an optimistic view that it does. Using nearly 100 official ECB statements on exchange rates made during its monetary policy press conferences since 2002, we show that the ECB tends to mention the exchange rate when the real effective exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium value, whereas journalists’ questions are mainly responsive to the nominal exchange rate. Studying the effects of these mentions, our findings by and large support the skeptical view: after controlling for monetary policy shocks, exchange rate communication has limited immediate effects on the euro exchange rate, which fade quickly. Effectiveness is particularly limited when interest rates are at their effective lower bound.

Keywords: Central; bank; communication (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 F31 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP21606 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21606

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP21606

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().