Pricing Cars Off the Road: E-bike Substitution and Welfare Gains from Transport Pricing

Jakob Roth, Laura Schwab, Beat Hintermann, Götschi, Thomas, Adrian Meister, Lucas Meyer de Freitas and Kay Axhausen

No 21954, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This study measures the extent to which Pigovian transport pricing induces a shift from driving to cycling. In a randomized controlled trial with 1,085 E-bike owners who also drive regularly, we monitor transport choices using a GPS-based tracking app. The pricing intervention reduces transport-related external costs by 7%, mainly in the form of local and national externalities. The underlying mechanism is a mode shift away from driving toward cycling. Estimating a discrete choice model to recover structural preference parameters, we find that a volumetric tax on driving would capture 81% of the intervention's welfare gains.

Keywords: E-bike; bicycle; Rct; GPS tracking; external costs; Pigovian taxation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H23 H31 I18 Q54 Q58 R41 R48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
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