The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Railroads on Mexico-US Migration

David Escamilla-Guerrero and Giovanni Peri

No 22020, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We exploit variation in access to Mexico's early-1900s railroad network to estimate its short- and long-run effects on US migration. Instrumenting access with least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that railroads increased migration rates fourfold, while also spurring urbanization and development. The key mechanism was sequential migration: railroads channeled people to railroad hubs, then onward to the US. A century later, long after railroads became obsolete, railroad-connected locations show lower migration rates, consistent with growth reducing emigration incentives. Yet destination choices persist: locations that favored specific US destinations in the 1900s still do today, reflecting durable migrant networks.

Keywords: Immigration; Long-run economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 N36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10
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