Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion

Giancarlo Corsetti, Marcello Pericoli and Massimo Sbracia

No 3310, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This Paper develops a test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis, which generalizes existing tests, and applies it to the international effects of the Hong Kong stock market crisis of October 1997. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the international transmission of financial shocks. For plausible values of the variance of country-specific shocks in Hong Kong, our test finds evidence of contagion for 5 countries out of a sample of 17. This is in sharp contrast with the findings of recent literature, according to which there is 'no contagion, only interdependence'. We show that this strong result in the literature is due to arbitrary and unrealistic restrictions on the variance of country-specific shocks.

Keywords: Contagion; Financial crisis; Factor model; Correlation analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 F30 G10 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-ifn and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (52)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP3310 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: 'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3310

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP3310

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().