Advance Information and Asset Prices

Rui Albuquerque and Jianjun Miao

No 6588, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper provides a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model in which investors have heterogeneous information and investment opportunities. Informed investors privately receive advance information that is useful for predicting future earnings, but is unrelated to current earnings. This information is immediately partially incorporated into stock prices. In response to good advance information, informed investors act as trend chasers and raise investments in both stocks and nontraded assets, leading them to bear more aggregate risk. This raises the expected risk premium and generates short-run momentum. Uninformed investors act as contrarians and sell stocks. When the advance information materializes in the future, excess returns fall, generating long-run reversals.

Keywords: Advance information; Momentum and reversal effects; Rational expectations equilibrium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk and nep-mst
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Advance information and asset prices (2014)
Working Paper: Advance Information and Asset Prices (2008)
Working Paper: Advance Information and Asset Prices
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