Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation

Lutz Kilian

No 7324, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and Kilian (2002) is that worldwide shifts in monetary policy regimes not related to the oil market played a major role in causing both the major oil price increases of the 1970s and stagflation in many economies. A competing view exemplified by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997) is that the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s arose exogenously with respect to global macroeconomic conditions, but were propagated by the reaction of monetary policy makers, causing stagflation in the process. This paper reviews the evidence for these two main explanations, interprets recent events in light of this evidence, and outlines implications for monetary policy.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Oil price; Policy reaction; Regimes; Stagflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E42 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP7324 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Chapter: Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7324

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP7324

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().