Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach

Corrado Giulietti, Brendon McConnell and Yves Zenou

No 2525, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin)

Abstract: How can crime be disrupted effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model of crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighborhoods—highly connected areas in the network. Counterfactual analysis shows that targeting top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than targeting top 10% of hot spots, resulting in potential annual savings exceeding £130 million. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we find that while hot spots attract crime locally, key players facilitate its propagation across areas.

Keywords: C23; D85; H50; K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06
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