The Heterogeneous Earnings Impact of Job Loss Across Workers, Establishments, and Markets

Susan Athey, Lisa Simon, Oskar Skans, Johan Vikström and Yaroslav Yakymovych

No 26075, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin)

Abstract: Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers. Heterogeneity in effects is as large within as across worker groups defined by age and schooling, and as large within as across establishments. A substantial portion of cross-establishment heterogeneity can be explained by industry and local labor market characteristics, suggesting a role for place- and industry-based targeting. The largest losses are concentrated among already vulnerable workers, indicating that well-designed targeting policies can improve both efficiency and equity.

Keywords: Plant closures; heterogeneous effects; GRF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 J21 J31 J65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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