Post-migration fertility preferences and social norms: Experimental evidence from forced migrants

Abdurrahman Aydemir, Giacomo Battiston, Riccardo Franceschin and Asli Sanlıtürk

No 26205, RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series from ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin)

Abstract: Do migrants want to conform to the host country social norms? We examine this question in the fertility domain with an RCT evaluating the impact of receiving information about native fertility norms on the fertility preferences, intentions, and beliefs of forced migrants. The treatment reduces migrants' expectations about natives' actual and desired fertility. Information lowers the probability of intending to have a child within two years and within five years, and the ideal number of children, both of which are correlated with future pregnancies among sample households, and affects concerns about stigmatization based on family size. Effects are stronger among men and more religious individuals. In these groups, they persist even 7-8 months after the intervention. They are not driven by priming effects and point to a specific role of natives' norms. Indeed, a second treatment providing information about the fertility of migrants from the same group has no statistically significant impact on intentions and weaker effects on the ideal number of children. Our findings are consistent with a framework in which migrants are misinformed about natives' social norms and update their beliefs when exposed to new information.

Keywords: Forced migration; Fertility preferences; Social norms; Information frictions; Cultural integration; Belief updating; Randomized controlled trial. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D83 F22 J31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-mig
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