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Premiums/Discounts and Predictive Ability of the Shrimp Futures Market

Josué Martínez-Garmendia and James Anderson

Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 2001, vol. 30, issue 2, 160-167

Abstract: Seafood futures contracts are a novelty in the derivative markets, having shrimp as their only exponent. Unfortunately, shrimp futures contracts have suffered a disappointing start. The analyses focus on testing whether premiums/discounts for non-par deliverable shrimp size categories can eliminate cash price differentials, and whether the shrimp futures market can predict cash prices without bias. Results indicate ineffective premiums/discounts and predictive bias. These results and the momentous changes taking place in the seafood industry are contrasted to discuss the viability of seafood futures contracts.

Date: 2001
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