The Populist Backlash Against Globalization: A Meta-Analysis of the Causal Evidence

Gábor Scheiring, Manuel Serrano-Alarcón, Alexandru Moise, Courtney McNamara and David Stuckler

British Journal of Political Science, 2024, vol. 54, issue 3, 892-916

Abstract: The literature on populism is divided on whether economic factors are significant and robust causes of populism. To clarify this, we performed the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence of a causal association between economic insecurity and populism. We combined database searches with searching the citations of eligible studies and recently published reviews. We identified and reviewed thirty-six studies and presented a concise narrative summary and numerical synthesis of the key findings. Although we found significant heterogeneity in several dimensions, all studies reported a significant causal association. A recurrent magnitude was that economic insecurity explained around one-third of recent surges in populism. We tested for publication bias by conducting a funnel-plot asymmetry test and a density discontinuity test of the distribution of t-statistics. We found significant evidence of publication bias; however, the causal association between economic insecurity and populism remains significant after controlling for it.

Date: 2024
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