How Local Context Affects Populist Radical Right Support: A Cross-National Investigation Into Mediated and Moderated Relationships

Kai Arzheimer, Carl Berning, Sarah de Lange, Jerome Dutozia, Jocelyn Evans, Myles Gould, Eelco Harteveld, Nick Hood, Gilles Ivaldi, Paul Norman, Wouter van der Brug and Tom van der Meer

British Journal of Political Science, 2024, vol. 54, issue 4, 1133-1158

Abstract: Populist radical right (PRR) parties are often more successful in some regions of their countries than in others. However, previous research shows that the relationship between context and PRR support is not straightforward. We develop and test an expanded framework linking local conditions to PRR support through two causal mechanisms. First, we argue economic and cultural contextual factors can influence citizens by fostering a sense of perceived local decline, which in turn predicts both populist and nativist attitudes and, hence, PRR support (mediation). Second, we expect that citizens with fewer resources and stronger local embeddedness are more strongly influenced by the context in which they live (moderation). Combining geocoded survey data with contextual data from four countries (DE, FR, GB and NL), we show that the link between local context and PRR support is indeed mediated and moderated, providing a better understanding of the spatial distribution behind recent PRR success.

Date: 2024
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