Relative Exposure to Negative Economic Shocks, Racial Animus, and Voting

Daniel B. Jones, Erica Owen and Rena Sung

International Organization, 2026, vol. 80, issue 3, _2

Abstract: We examine how relative exposure to negative economic shocks across racial groups impacts racial animus and voting patterns. Guided by group position theory, we argue that when dominant groups experience greater economic harm than nondominant groups within the same labor markets, racial animus intensifies. In the US context, the historically central boundary between white and Black Americans provides the most meaningful test of this mechanism. Using data from US commuting zones (2000 to 2020), we focus on the impact of the China shock on anti-Black racial animus. We measure relative exposure as the gap in import exposure between white and Black workers. Our findings show that negative economic shocks disproportionately affecting white workers, compared to Black workers, lead to increased anti-Black animus and increased Republican presidential vote share, even when controlling for overall import exposure. Taken together, these findings suggest that it is economic decline relative to another group that generates racial animus and outwardly racist behavior, as well as influences political behavior.

Date: 2026
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