Social Mobility in the Long Run: An Analysis of Tongcheng, China, 1300 to 1900

Carol H. Shiue

The Journal of Economic History, 2025, vol. 85, issue 2, 370-410

Abstract: This study examines intergenerational mobility in China over 6 centuries using unique genealogical data on father-son pairs from 7 clans in Tongcheng County. Covering 18 generations and approximately 40,000 individuals, the analysis spans a broad set of social classes, from ordinary people to jinshi degree holders. The findings indicate that although social mobility was slow to change, mobility nonetheless underwent a sizable increase during the seventeenth century. The timing of the trends corroborates a number of key changes that affected mobility for commoners and for the highly educated elites. The results also show that intergenerational mobility and inequality are negatively correlated in the time series, a pattern previously observed in cross-sectional studies and commonly known as the Great Gatsby curve.

Date: 2025
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