International capital flows in the process of longevity catch-up

Kazuyuki Inagaki

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2025, vol. 29, -

Abstract: Using a polynomial cointegration technique, this paper shows that the bilateral US current account balance with China has a U-shaped relationship with the life expectancy gap between the US and China. A narrowing gap initially increases the US deficit with China, but eventually, this increased US deficit falls with the further catching-up of Chinese life expectancy. The life expectancy gap between the two countries has been below the threshold level since 2013, and this demographic trend has the potential to improve the US deficit with China. This U-shaped relationship can be theoretically reproduced. A two-country overlapping generations model indicates that the effect of life expectancy is decomposed into four components: retirement savings, social security burden, the number of elderly workers, and the productivity of elderly workers. The total effect of foreign life expectancy on the home current account balance exhibits a sign change in the catching-up of foreign life expectancy.

Date: 2025
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