Prospects for the UK Economy

Simon Kirby, Ray Barrell and Nathan Foley-Fisher

National Institute Economic Review, 2009, vol. 210, 39-57

Abstract: We expect the economy to contract by 4.4 per cent this year, a prospect which has scarcely changed since our April forecast. Our early estimate suggests that output was stable in the third quarter of this year, after a fall of 0.6 per cent in the second quarter (figure 1). Measured on an annual basis the contraction is only slightly less bad than the 4.6 per cent recorded in 1931.

Date: 2009
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