EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects

Ray Fair
Additional contact information
Ray Fair: Yale University

No 2401, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: This paper makes three main contributions. First, inflation expectation equations are estimated using quarterly time series data. Second, a price equation in level form is estimated that is consistent with the data, unlike Phillips-curve equations. Third, the case is considered in which an expectation variable in an inflation or price equation is not causal. The results suggest that household inflation expectations are mostly affected by current and past inflation. The Fed through interest rates has a modest effect. In the estimated price equation a measure of the expected future price level is significant, although it may not be causal. Whether it is or not, the results show that the Fed’s ability to affect inflation is modest since its effect on expectations is modest.

Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-inv and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2024-08/d2401.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2401

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
The price is None.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Brittany Ladd ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-30
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2401