Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based On Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Mar’a Alejandra Rodr’guez Vega and Laura Veldkamp
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Ilse Lindenlaub: Department of Economics, Yale University
Ryungha Oh: Department of Economics, Yale University
Mar’a Alejandra Rodr’guez Vega: Department of Economics, Yale University
Laura Veldkamp: Columbia Business School, Columbia University

No 2532, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: We document and explain the gap between measures of AI exposure and measures of AI adoption in the workplace. This leads us to propose a new AI adoption index based on comparative advantage. Using the representative German DiWaBe employee survey linked to worker and establishment information, we compare worker-reported AI use to prominent exposure measures and find that the relationship is weak. Motivated by this gap, we develop a framework in which adoption depends not only on technical feasibilityÑAIÕs absolute advantage measured by exposureÑbut on profitabilityÑAIÕs comparative (dis)advantage relative to a specific workerÑbalancing AI productivity against AI user costs and worker productivity against wages. We operationalize this framework at the task level by (i) estimating worker productivity relative to pay, (ii) mapping exposure indices into AI productivity, and (iii) inferring task-specific AI user costs from revealed-preference adoption. The resulting occupation-level index accounts for 60% of cross-occupation variation in observed AI adoption, compared to 14% for an exposure-only model. The two approaches diverge substantially for approximately 30% of workers, highlighting that comparative advantageÑnot exposure aloneÑis crucial for assessing AIÕs labor-market impact.

Date: 2026-05
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