Silver swan events: Positive demand disruptions as an overlooked dimension of supply chain resilience management

M. Klumpp and C. H. Glock

Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) from Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL)

Abstract: Global disruptions have pushed supply chain resilience to the forefront of managerial and scholarly attention. Existing research has focused on negative, high-impact disruptions–commonly referred to as black swan events–and on how firms can mitigate their effects. Less attention has been paid to disruptions that originate from sudden and extreme positive demand shocks, despite such events creating substantial operational and strategic challenges. This perspective paper introduces the concept of “silver swan events” to describe short-lived, extreme surges in demand that exceed firms' operational capacities and are followed by pronounced corrections. We conceptualize silver swan events as a distinct class of disruptions, outline their defining characteristics and phases, and explain mechanisms through which they generate vulnerability despite their initially positive nature. Drawing on illustrative examples, we show how misconception of temporary demand, capacity constraints, and lock-in effects contribute to risks during the correction phase. By distinguishing silver swan events from established notions of black swan events and demand volatility, this paper extends the supply chain resilience literature with a conceptual framework for understanding positive-trigger disruptions. It further outlines managerial implications and identifies avenues for further research on how firms can design more flexible and resilient responses to a temporary demand surge.

Date: 2026-03-17
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Published in Journal of Business Logistics 2 (2026-03-17) : pp. 1-12

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dar:wpaper:159774

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