Exogenous Macroeconomic Shocks As Contemporary Business Cycle Determinants

Veniamin Todorov
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Veniamin Todorov: University of Economics

Economic Archive, 2022, issue 3 Year 2022, 3-17

Abstract: The article presents the results of a research that aims to test the hypothesis that exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect present-day business cycle dynamics in a way that extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. The analysis covers the present-day manifestation of three key types of exogenous shocks - health shocks, oil price shocks and natural disasters. The research showed a lot of evidence that corroborates the hypothesis and hence it is confirmed. The three types of exogenous shocks have played an important role not only for the last two years, but also beyond this time horizon.

Keywords: exogenous shocks; health shocks; oil price shocks; natural disasters; business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 E32 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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