China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact: Comments on the preliminary results of the 2010 census

Zhongwei Zhao and Wei Chen
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Zhongwei Zhao: Australian National University
Wei Chen: Renmin University of China

Demographic Research, 2011, vol. 25, issue 26, 819-836

Abstract: The Chinese government conducted its sixth national census in 2010 and released its major results in April 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics the quality of the census was very high. Although the currently released census results consist of limited statistics only, they shed new light on China’s recent fertility levels, which have been debated among scholars and policy makers for more than a decade. The 2010 census results, however, also show considerable inconsistencies with those published by the United Nations Population Division recently. This paper will, on the basis of newly published census results and other available evidence, further examine China’s recent fertility decline and its impact on the country’s long-term development. It will also comment on the major discrepancies between the results of Chinese government recent population projection, the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision and China’s 2010 census, and investigate the underlying causes that have led to these differences.

Keywords: China; fertility level; census data; UN 2010 Population Projection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:26

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.26

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