Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data

Leontine Alkema, Samuel J. Clark, Patrick Gerland, Adrian E. Raftery and Francois Pelletier
Additional contact information
Leontine Alkema: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Samuel J. Clark: Ohio State University
Patrick Gerland: United Nations Population Division
Adrian E. Raftery: University of Washington
Francois Pelletier: Statistics Canada

Demographic Research, 2012, vol. 26, issue 15, 331-362

Abstract: Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimates that include an uncertainty assessment is desired. Methods: We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time, based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources including surveys and censuses. We take account of measurement error in observations by decomposing it into bias and variance and assess both by linear regression on a variety of data quality covariates. We estimate the total fertility rate using a local smoother, and assess uncertainty using the weighted likelihood bootstrap. Results: We apply our method to data from seven countries in West Africa and construct estimates and uncertainty intervals for the total fertility rate. Based on cross-validation exercises, we find that accounting for differences in data quality between observations gives better calibrated confidence intervals and reduces bias. Conclusions: When working with multiple imperfect observations from different data sources to estimate the total fertility rate, or demographic indicators in general, potential biases and differences in error variance have to be taken into account to improve the estimates and their uncertainty assessment.

Keywords: retrospective surveys; Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS); Bayesian inference; local smoother; United Nations; weighted likelihood bootstrap; variable selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:26:y:2012:i:15

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15

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