Reforging the Wedding Ring

Jakub Bijak, Viet Dung Cao, Eric Silverman and Jason Hilton
Additional contact information
Jakub Bijak: University of Southampton
Viet Dung Cao: University of Southampton
Eric Silverman: University of Southampton
Jason Hilton: University of Southampton

Demographic Research, 2013, vol. 29, issue 27, 729-766

Abstract: Background: We extend the "Wedding Ring‟ agent-based model of marriage formation to include some empirical information on the natural population change for the United Kingdom together with behavioural explanations that drive the observed nuptiality trends. Objective: We propose a method to explore statistical properties of agent-based demographic models. By coupling rule-based explanations driving the agent-based model with observed data we wish to bring agent-based modelling and demographic analysis closer together. Methods: We present a Semi-Artificial Model of Population, which aims to bridge demographic micro-simulation and agent-based traditions. We then utilise a Gaussian process emulator - a statistical model of the base model - to analyse the impact of selected model parameters on two key model outputs: population size and share of married agents. A sensitivity analysis is attempted, aiming to assess the relative importance of different inputs. Results: The resulting multi-state model of population dynamics has enhanced predictive capacity as compared to the original specification of the Wedding Ring, but there are some trade-offs between the outputs considered. The sensitivity analysis allows identification of the most important parameters in the modelled marriage formation process. Conclusions: The proposed methods allow for generating coherent, multi-level agent-based scenarios aligned with some aspects of empirical demographic reality. Emulators permit a statistical analysis of their properties and help select plausible parameter values. Comments: Given non-linearities in agent-based models such as the Wedding Ring, and the presence of feedback loops, the uncertainty in the model may not be directly computable by using traditional statistical methods. The use of statistical emulators offers a way forward.

Keywords: multistate models; population dynamics; agent-based computational demography; sensitivity analysis; Gaussian process emulator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol29/27/29-27.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:29:y:2013:i:27

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.27

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Demographic Research from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Editorial Office ().