The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan

Siddharth Chandra and Yan-Liang Yu
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Yan-Liang Yu: Michigan State University

Demographic Research, 2015, vol. 33, issue 11, 313-326

Abstract: Background: Recent research has documented fertility decline after the peak of pandemic-associated mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Yet the time interval between the mortality peak and the dip in fertility and its contributing mechanisms remains a line of debate. Objective: This study examines the inter-temporal association between pandemic-associated mortality and subsequent birth deficit in Japan in order to shed light on the current debate about the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on human fertility. Methods: Seasonally and trend-adjusted monthly data on deaths, births, and stillbirths in Japan are used to compute cross-correlations between deaths, births, and stillbirths. Results: The analysis revealed a negative and statistically significant association between deaths (𝑑) at time 𝑡 and births (𝑏) at time 𝑡+9 (𝑟𝑑𝑏(9)=−.397,𝑝

Keywords: mortality; fertility; influenza (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:33:y:2015:i:11

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.11

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