Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?

V. Smith, Taylor, Donald H., and Frank Sloan

No 00-15, Working Papers from Duke University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Using four waves of the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) this paper tests whether longevity expectations predict actual mortality at the individual level. The results suggest longevity expectations do predict mortality reasonably well. Serious health shocks and new activity limitations do reduce longevity expectations. Given one is prepared to accept that other unobserved causal factors have the same means for those who die and those who survive in each wave it is possible to test whether longevity expectations can serve as a sufficient statistic. The test findings imply that they do not appear to reflect all that individuals know about their personal odds of living to seventy-five.

JEL-codes: D80 I12 J14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin and nep-hea
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Journal Article: Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise? (2001)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:duk:dukeec:00-15

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