“Normal†growth of the Chinese economy: new metrics based on consumer confidence data

Petar Sorić ()
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Petar Sorić: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Petar Sorić

Economics Bulletin, 2020, vol. 40, issue 2, 1740-1746

Abstract: The past three decades of remarkable Chinese economic development have triggered a noteworthy poverty reduction and the empowerment of Chinese consumers. However, the existing literature has been quite silent on Chinese consumer sentiment and the way consumers perceive their economy as a whole. We build on that by focusing on consumer confidence data to propose an indicator of normal long-term growth for the Chinese economy. We note a significant decoupling of the stated indicator and the official GDP figures after the global financial crisis, implying that the Chinese economy is on a sub-optimal trajectory. Our findings support the middle-income trap hypothesis for the Chinese economy.

Keywords: Consumer confidence; global financial crisis; China; normal growth; middle-income trap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06-18
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