Do income policy mitigate the economic impacts of Covid-19 on tourism in Brazil?

Luiz Carlos de Ribeiro (), Gervásio Santos (), Rodrigo Cerqueira () and Kênia Souza ()
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Luiz Carlos de Ribeiro: Universidade Federal de Sergipe, Sergipe, Brazil.
Gervásio Santos: Federal University of Bahia, Brazil
Rodrigo Cerqueira: Superintendence of Economic and Social Studies of Bahia (SEI), Salvador, Brazil
Kênia Souza: Federal University of Paraná, Brazil

Economics Bulletin, 2021, vol. 41, issue 4, 2574-2579

Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the hole of the government compensatory policy in order to mitigate the economic impact of pandemic COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Brazil. Tourist activities were the first to be strongly affected by the pandemic, and these impacts are expected to be the most prolonged ones. In this research, the method of partial hypothetical extraction, underling the input-output modeling, was used to simulate the economic impacts of two scenarios affecting the tourist activities and workers in this sector. As far as to our knowledge, this type of approach has never been applied before in the tourism context. The results show a potential decline of 31% in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of tourist activities derived from the withdrawal of informal workers and tourist demand contraction. In addition, the government compensatory policy could mitigate these negative effects reducing it to 17%. Lodging services would be the most affected tourist activity.

Keywords: Pandemic Covid-19; Partial hypothetical extraction; Input-output; Brazilian tourism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I1 L8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12-29
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