An analysis of launch cost reductions for low Earth orbit satellites

Nodir Adilov (adilovn@pfw.edu), Peter Alexander (peter.alexander@fcc.gov), Brendan Cunningham (cunninghambr@easternct.edu) and Nikolas Albertson (albenl02@pfw.edu)
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Nodir Adilov: Purdue University Fort Wayne
Peter Alexander: Federal Communications Commission
Brendan Cunningham: Eastern Connecticut State University
Nikolas Albertson: Purdue University Fort Wayne

Economics Bulletin, 2022, vol. 42, issue 3, 1561 - 1574

Abstract: We explore launch-cost reductions for satellites in low-Earth orbit and find that from 2000 to 2020 per-kilogram launch costs decreased at an average annual rate of 5.5%, while altitude-adjusted average launch costs per kilogram decreased by 4.4% annually. The altitude-adjusted annual rate of decrease was 7.5% for commercial satellites and 3.6% for non-commercial satellites. Regression analysis reveals that declining satellite mass induced an annual 10.4% reduction in average per-satellite launch costs over the period under study. At these rates, average launch costs to low-Earth orbit will fall below $1000 per kilogram between 2045 and 2076 and $100 per kilogram by the next century.

Keywords: launch cost; satellites; economics of space; space commerce. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L9 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09-30
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