Effect of geopolitical and environmental disruptions on maritime trade security

Necati Altemur (), Ibrahim Halil Ekşi (), William Ginn () and Jamel Saadaoui
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Necati Altemur: Şebinkarahisar Vocational School Giresun University
Ibrahim Halil Ekşi: Gaziantep University
William Ginn: Labcorp, AI

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 2, 836 - 841

Abstract: This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on the Red Sea Crisis, which has disrupted key maritime ports including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, and the severe drought constraining traffic through the Panama Canal. By analyzing cargo ship transit data before, during, and after these events, the study quantifies the effects of both geopolitical and environmental disruptions on global trade dynamics. The findings reveal displacement and increased volatility in trade patterns, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of such crises on international commerce. These results emphasize the need for geopolitical stability and environmental resilience in key trade routes, a conclusion that is also relevant for policymakers.

Keywords: Maritime Trade Security; ARFIMA-GARCH models; Red Sea Conflict; Drought. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F5 R4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06-30
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