Financial side over the real side: Effects in the Brazilian economy at last decade using hierarchical BVAR approach

Júlio Fernando Costa Santos (), Yasmim Dalila Barbant () and Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Salles ()
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Júlio Fernando Costa Santos: Federal University of Uberlândia
Yasmim Dalila Barbant: Federal University of Espírito Santo
Alexandre Ottoni Teatini Salles: Federal University of Espírito Santo

Economics Bulletin, 2025, vol. 45, issue 4, 1826 - 1839

Abstract: We estimate a hierarchical Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for Brazil covering 2015–2024 to examine how financial conditions—credit, household indebtedness, FDI, bank lending rates, and default rates—propagate to real activity—unemployment, investment, and industrial capacity utilization. Impulse-response evidence indicates transmission channels, especially credit and balance-sheet effects, that extend beyond the conventional interest-rate channel emphasized in standard monetary-policy analysis.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Credit Supply; Debt; Default Rate; BVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-30
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