Energy price shocks and climate concern: A causal forest analysis

Provash Sarker

Economics Bulletin, 2026, vol. 46, issue 2, 710 - 722

Abstract: We examine the heterogeneous treatment effects of oil price shocks on climate concern using the causal forest method, applied to monthly US data from January 2004 to August 2025. High oil prices are associated with a significant decrease in climate concern of 11.52 points, representing about 3.78% of the sample mean. Treatment effects exhibit substantial heterogeneity, moderated primarily by personal income, consumer sentiment, and inflation. Effects are smallest during low unemployment and largest during economic downturns. Complementary analysis using Google Trends reveals contrasting positive effects (ATE = +0.817), suggesting institutional attention decreases while individual information-seeking increases. These findings suggest that economic hardship from energy price shocks crowds out climate concern, with implications for counter-cyclical climate communication strategies.

Keywords: Causal inference; Climate concern; Oil prices; Machine learning. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-30
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