Five years of the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts: evolution and insights

Felix Hammermann and Martin Strukat

Economic Bulletin Articles, 2026, vol. 4

Abstract: The Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) is a valuable information set for understanding the expectations of financial market participants regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in the euro area. This article reviews the evolution of the SMA over the past five years, highlighting key development milestones, including changes to the panel, questionnaire and analytical use of the survey. It explains how SMA data enhance regular monetary policy assessments and the understanding of expectation formation. In particular, the links between the expected policy rate path and the macroeconomic expectations of respondents provide structured insights into the views of the analysts. This has proven to be particularly valuable during periods of economic uncertainty, including during the post-pandemic surge in inflation and the subsequent period of disinflation. The article also evaluates the forecast accuracy of the SMA, as well as the disagreement among respondents, and the dispersion of their macroeconomic expectations. JEL Classification: E5, E52, E58

Keywords: central bank policy; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2026:0004:1

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