Climate-related policies in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area and the macroeconomic impact of green fiscal measures

Marien Ferdinandusse, Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis and Yiqiao Sun

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2023, vol. 1

Abstract: In line with the ECB’s comprehensive action plan to incorporate climate change considerations into its policy framework, technical assumptions on carbon pricing have been introduced in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, along with a regular evaluation of the impact of climate-related fiscal policies on the projections baseline. This box evaluates the impact of green fiscal measures on GDP growth and inflation and discusses potential effects and risks to the outlook posed by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and non-fiscal climate-related measures. The overall impact of green measures on euro area real GDP growth is expected to be very small until 2025, and their impact on inflation is limited but increases slightly over time. Over the period 2022-25, fiscal measures that are detrimental to the green transition outweigh green measures. Changes to the EU ETS under the “Fit for 55” package, and the sustained shift towards renewable energy sources implied by regulation, could pose both upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, especially from 2025 onwards. JEL Classification: Q58, O44, E32

Keywords: Climate change policies; GDP growth; relative prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-02
Note: 673741
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