Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area

Thomas Westermann, Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, Philipp Rother, Alberto Musso and Angela Maddaloni

No 51, Occasional Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected demographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP growth and a severe burden in terms of pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems. Population ageing will change the financial landscape, with a potentially larger role for financial intermediaries and asset prices. All this points to a need to closely monitor demographic change also from a monetary policy perspective. While population projections are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and the effects of demographic change tend to be drawn out, the magnitude of the potential effects calls for an early recognition of this issue. This paper provides some input to the examination of possible policy issues. JEL Classification: J11, O47

Keywords: demographic developments; euro area; real GDP growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-08
Note: 504287
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200651

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