A stochastic SIQR epidemic model with Lévy jumps and three-time delays

Ge Zhang, Zhiming Li and Anwarud Din

Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2022, vol. 431, issue C

Abstract: Isolation and vaccination are the two most effective measures in protecting the public from the spread of illness. The SIQR model with vaccination is widely used to investigate the dynamics of an infectious disease at population level having the compartments: susceptible, infectious, quarantined and recovered. The paper mainly aims to extend the deterministic model to a stochastic SQIR case with Lévy jumps and three-time delays, which is more suitable for modeling complex and instable environment. The existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution are obtained by using the Lyapunov method. The dynamic properties of stochastic solution are studied around the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the deterministic model. Our results reveal that stochastic perturbation affect the asymptotic properties of the model. Numerical simulation shows the effects of interested parameters of theoretical results, including quarantine, vaccination and jump parameters. Finally, we apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of mutant COVID-19 epidemic in Gansu Province, China.

Keywords: Stochastic SIQR model; Lévy jumps; Equilibrium; Asymptotic behavior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:431:y:2022:i:c:s0096300322004039

DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2022.127329

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