A mathematical study on the spread of COVID-19 considering social distancing and rapid assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia

Dipo Aldila, Sarbaz H.A. Khoshnaw, Egi Safitri, Yusril Rais Anwar, Aanisah R.Q. Bakry, Brenda M. Samiadji, Demas A. Anugerah, M. Farhan Alfarizi Gh, Indri D. Ayulani and Sheryl N. Salim

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 139, issue C

Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of rapid testing and social distancing in controlling the spread of COVID-19, particularly in the city of Jakarta, Indonesia. We formulate a modified susceptible exposed infectious recovered compartmental model considering asymptomatic individuals. Rapid testing is intended to trace the existence of asymptomatic infected individuals among the population. This asymptomatic class is categorized into two subclasses: detected and undetected asymptomatic individuals. Furthermore, the model considers the limitations of medical resources to treat an infected individual in a hospital. The model shows two types of equilibrium point: COVID-19 free and COVID-19 endemic. The COVID-19-free equilibrium point is locally and asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number (R0)is less than unity. In contrast, COVID-19-endemic equilibrium always exists when R0>1. The model can also show a backward bifurcation at R0=1whenever the treatment saturation parameter, which describes the hospital capacity, is larger than a specific threshold. To justify the model parameters, we use the incidence data from the city of Jakarta, Indonesia. The data pertain to infected individuals who self-isolate in their homes and visit the hospital for further treatment. Our numerical experiments indicate that strict social distancing has the potential to succeed in reducing and delaying the time of an outbreak. However, if the strict social distancing policy is relaxed, a massive rapid-test intervention should be conducted to avoid a large-scale outbreak in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19; Asymptomatic cases; Social distancing; Rapid test; Basic reproduction number; Backward bifurcation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304367

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110042

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