Ebola epidemic model with dynamic population and memory

Faïçal Ndaïrou, Moein Khalighi and Leo Lahti

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2023, vol. 170, issue C

Abstract: The recent outbreaks of Ebola encourage researchers to develop mathematical models for simulating the dynamics of Ebola transmission. We continue the study of the models focusing on those with a variable population. Hence, this paper presents a compartmental model consisting of 8-dimensional nonlinear differential equations with a dynamic population and investigates its basic reproduction number. Moreover, a dimensionless model is introduced for numerical analysis, thus proving the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the threshold condition, known as a basic reproduction number, is less than one. Finally, we use a fractional differential form of the model to sufficiently fit long time-series data of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone retrieved from the World Health Organization, and the numerical results demonstrate the performance of the model.

Keywords: Ebola model; Basic reproduction ratio; Fractional Ebola model; Fractional derivative; Numerical simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:170:y:2023:i:c:s096007792300262x

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113361

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