Evaluating the impact of swill-feeding on the control of African swine fever in China with a dynamic model

Juan Li, Junhui Zhang, Lu Gao, Bingxin Nie and Huaiping Zhu

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2024, vol. 186, issue C

Abstract: To effectively mitigate and manage the onset of an outbreak, it is of utmost importance to promptly and accurately ascertain the origins and routes of infection and initiate control measures. The propagation of the epidemic, exemplified by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China, has identified swill as a corroborative catalyst. This study exams the impact of swill feeding through a dynamical modelling to assess the associated prohibition policies on the dissemination of ASF within China. By scrutinizing ASF mortality data, employing simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques, we conclude that swill feeding significantly exacerbates the propagation of ASF and the monthly peak of the epidemic with swill feeding can be fivefold higher than those without, and the cumulative number of pig mortalities can be amplified by seven times. Timely enforcement of no-swill-feeding policies yields positive outcomes in terms of preventing and managing the epidemic. However, a one-month delay of implementation of the policy will postpone the peak time by two months and an alarming 85 % increase of pig mortalities. Therefore, timely identification of the transmission route and swift execution of targeted measures to disrupt the transmission network of ASF are pivotal in curbing the epidemic and fostering the growth of the swine husbandry industry.

Keywords: African swine fever (ASF); Swill-feeding; Dynamic model; Quantitative assessment; Prevention and control (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:186:y:2024:i:c:s0960077924008142

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115262

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