Analysis of final size and peak time for SIR epidemic model on simplicial complexes

Ting Xu, Juping Zhang and Zhen Jin

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2025, vol. 196, issue C

Abstract: The Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) epidemic model based on a simplicial complex is investigated, incorporating higher-order network topology and nonlinear incidence rates. We derive theoretical results for the basic reproduction number, the final size, and the epidemic peak of the mean-field model. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical estimate for the peak time of an epidemic. Numerical simulations reveal that higher-order interactions significantly impact the dynamics of epidemic transmission. Specifically, as the strength of higher-order interactions increases, both the final size and the epidemic peak heighten, while the peak time is shortened. These findings highlight the importance of considering higher-order structures in modeling epidemic spread.

Keywords: Simplicial complex; SIR; Mean field; Final size; Peak time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:196:y:2025:i:c:s0960077925004035

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116390

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