Temperature fluctuations superimposed on background temperature changeAuthor-Name: Otto, James

J.A. Roberts

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2016, vol. 84, issue C, 1-8

Abstract: Proxy data allows the temperature of the Earth to be mapped over long periods of time. In this work the temperature fluctuations for over 200 proxy data sets were examined and from this set 50 sets were analyzed to test for periodic and quasi-periodic fluctuations in the data sets. Temperature reconstructions over 4 different time scales were analyzed to see if patterns emerged. Data were put into four time intervals; 4,000 years, 14,000 years, 1,000,000 years, and 3,000,000 years and analyzed with a goal to understanding periodic and quasi-periodic patterns in global temperature change superimposed on a “background” average temperature change. Quasi-periodic signatures were identified that predate the Industrial Revolution, during much of which direct data on temperature are not available. These data indicate that Earth temperatures have undergone a number of periodic and quasi-periodic intervals that contain both global warming and global cooling cycles. The fluctuations are superimposed on a background of temperature change that has a declining slope during the two periods, pre-ice age and post ice age with a transition about 12,000 BCE. The data are divided into “events” that span the time periods 3,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 1,000,000 BCE to “0” CE, 12,000 BCE to 2,000 CE and 2,000 BCE to 2,000 CE. An equation using a quasi-periodic (frequency modulated sine waves) patterns was developed to analyze the date sets for quasi-periodic patterns. “Periodicities” which show reasonable agreement with the predictions of Milankovitch and other investigators were found in the data sets.

Keywords: Climate impacts; Historical climate trends; Time series; Global temperature change periodic change; Quasi-periodic changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:84:y:2016:i:c:p:1-8

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.12.005

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