 Climate shocks and fertility intentions: Evidence from extreme temperature eventsXin Zhang, Jie Zhang and Fanglin Chen Economic Modelling, 2025, vol. 151, issue C Abstract: This study investigates how temperature anomalies reshape fertility intentions, addressing persistent gaps in linking climate dynamics to demographic change amid population aging. Using micro-level survey data and meteorological records from China, we examine the impact by employing high-dimensional fixed effects model. Our analysis reveals a 1 °C increase in temperature anomalies, fertility intentions decrease by 0.3082 units, equivalent to 14.8 % of the average fertility intention. Interestingly, air conditioner users, young people, highly educated individuals, and farmers are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature. Potential mechanisms include changes in energy consumption, cognitive evaluation, and physical health. Our findings reveal a climate-driven demographic response that may reshape population structures in the long term. Policymakers must recognize that addressing low fertility rates requires more than financial subsidies. In the face of global warming, humanity may need to “cool down” and rethink its future. Keywords: Adaptation; Climate concern; Fertility intention; Temperature anomaly (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002184 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107223 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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